529
FXUS61 KOKX 152147
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
547 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches tonight and lifts across the area Sunday
morning. A strong cold approaches Sunday afternoon and evening and
moves across the region through Monday. High pressure returns
Tuesday and Wednesday. A fast moving frontal system moves across
the area Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure may return
Friday into next Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Forecast on track this evening. High pressure remains offshore
through tonight, and weakens somewhat toward morning as a warm
front approaches from the south. Fog and drizzle are expected to
redevelop tonight, especially with the approach of the warm
front. While dense fog is not expected at this time, there is a
possibility of areas of dense fog toward daybreak Sunday
morning. Lift along with warm front also may bring some light
rain in addition to the drizzle. Temperatures will be non
diurnal, lowering this evening, and then rising through the
remainder of tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front moves north of the region early in the day Sunday,
and with the area warm sectored, once precipitation ends in the
morning, much of the rest of the day will be dry. Temperatures
will be nearly 15 degrees above normal across the region. With a
long southerly fetch low level moisture will be increasing
during the afternoon and into the evening, with precipitable
water values approaching 1 inch late in the day, and nearly 1.5
inches Sunday night, about as high as measured this time of
year. Increasing lift with a developing pre frontal trough will
lead to period of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall. Add
some elevated instability and CAPE along with the lift will
lead to the potential of isolated thunderstorms inland, while a
strong marine influence to the east will limit instability.
Rainfall rates may be near 0.50 inches per hour at times, and
local flooding of urban and poor drainage areas will be
possible, and the entire region remains in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall, and localized flash flooding cannot be ruled
out especially across the far eastern areas which will see
higher rainfall totals. These higher totals across the east will
be associated with the slower movement of the pre frontal and
cold front as waves of low pressure develop as the front moves
off shore. With the slower movement of the cold front, chances
of precipitation linger through the day Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points

*A few lingering showers possible across eastern Long Island and
southeast Connecticut Monday evening.

*Dry conditions return late Monday night and should prevail  through
mid week.

*Another frontal system moves across the area Thursday into Thursday
night bringing the next chance for showers.

*Temperatures look to average above through Thursday before trending
near to slightly below normal to end the week.

The cold front will continue moving offshore Monday evening. A wave
of low pressure likely forms on the front which could help linger a
few showers across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut in
the evening. The front and associated wave should pass far enough
offshore to bring an end to any showers by midnight across these
areas. Otherwise, clouds will gradually clear from west to east
through day break Tuesday.

The upper trough axis pushes east Tuesday morning as an upper ridge
builds over the northeast. The trough that passes offshore will
become a cutoff low over the western Atlantic as it gets trapped
beneath the upper ridge. The upper ridge will then slowly push east
through Thursday as the next amplifying upper trough quickly
approaches. At the surface, high pressure will be in control Tuesday
and Wednesday. The frontal system associated with the aforementioned
next upper trough will quickly move across the region Thursday into
Thursday night. Have held onto a 50 percent chance for showers late
Thursday/Thursday night as there are still timing and strength
differences with the system. The NBM probabilities for observing
greater than 1 inch in a 12 or 24 period have fallen and are now
generally less than 5 percent, which seems reasonable given the
progressive nature of the modeled system.

The front should be offshore to end the week. The associated upper
trough may become a cutoff low near or just off the New England
coast late Friday into the first half of the weekend as high
pressure starts building in from the west. This could create a tight
pressure gradient and lead to a windy Friday. NBM deterministic
temperatures have trended cooler for Friday with at least modest
cold advection and W-NW flow. Depending on how quick the offshore
upper low departs will determine if the surface high can settle over
the region next Saturday. Temperatures should trend closer to
seasonal normals for next Saturday as the air mass starts to
moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front moves through tonight. A cold front approaches
from the west late Sunday.

IFR/LIFR through the TAF period. ANy MVFR early this evening will
become IFR shortly.

Fog is likely and drizzle is possible tonight. A break in precip
tomorrow morning. Showers are expected to start at around 20-23Z
Sunday.

Winds become primarily S closer to 5 kts tonight with a warm frontal
passage and speed steadily increasing to 10kt late tonight, very
early tomorrow morning. By 12Z Sunday, S wind at 10-20kt with gusts
upwards of 25-30kt will be possible, especially along the coast.
LLWS is expected by 6Z at 2kft from the S at 40kt. This will
continue to increase into Sunday morning and afternoon to 50kt but
become more confined to the immediate NYC and eastern coastal
terminals. Up to 60kt LLWS possible at KJFK.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Confidence is low in occurrence of MVFR this afternoon. Currently
MVFR is in TAFs 18Z-00Z, but should trends not agree by 18Z routine
TAFs, may opt to keep cigs/vsbys at IFR levels for the remainder of
the afternoon and into the evening. Confidence is higher in IFR/LIFR
tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: IFR with showers. LLWS ramps down Sunday night.

Monday: Rain showers early, mainly east of NYC terminals with MVFR
to IFR possible. Rain showers taper off afternoon into night from
west to east. Conditions eventually return to VFR. Possible NW wind
gusts afternoon into early evening to 20 kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR in showers. W 10-15 kts, G 20-25 kts.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Main concern for tonight is potential of dense fog. Visibilities
should lower this evening and could near 1 nm and potentially
lower late tonight as a warm front approaches. A dense fog
advisory may be needed late tonight.

Otherwise, conditions should remain below SCA levels across the
waters tonight into early Sunday morning. An increasing
southerly slow during Sunday and into Sunday night, ahead of an
approaching frontal system will approach gale force gusts,
especially over the outer ocean waters. Confidence in gale gusts
across the remainder of the waters has lowered as a strong low
level inversion will prevent the higher winds aloft from mixing
to the water surface. However, with uncertainty will leave up
the Gale Watch for all the waters at this time. A the cold front
moves into the waters and waves of low pressure develop along
the front late Sunday night toward Monday morning, winds and
gusts will diminish and drop to less than SCA levels, with ocean
seas remaining at SCA levels.

Ocean seas will remain elevated at or above 5 ft Monday night
through Thursday mainly due to lingering SE swells. Winds on all
waters should be below SCA levels Monday night through
Wednesday. The next chance for SCA winds will be Thursday into
Thursday night as a cold front moves across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system is expected to produce a widespread 1 to 2
inches of rain Sunday evening through Monday evening, with up to
2.25 inches across southeastern Connecticut and the twin forks
of Long Island. Localized higher amounts are possible,
especially across the eastern areas. Heavy downpours could lead
to nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas,
especially Sunday night and Monday morning. While localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out, the overall risk is low.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Monday night through the end of
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET