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234
FXUS61 KOKX 122046
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
346 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warnings expanded to the eastern Sound/bays and to most of
the outer ocean waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure will impact the region as it passes off the
southern New Jersey coast late today and passes slowly south
and east of Long Island tonight into Friday. Locally heavy
downpours into this evening could lead to brief nuisance
flooding. The rain may mix with or change to snow mainly in the
higher elevations late tonight into Friday, with little to no
accumulation expected.

2) Minor coastal flooding is possible in vulnerable locations
along the Long Island south shore during the Friday daytime
high tide cycle.

3) High pressure will bring dry conditions into much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Sfc low pressure emerging off the NJ coast attm. Initial round
of convection in the NYC metro area driven by low level WAA and
upper jet left exit region dynamics that produced localized
severe wx and flash flooding in the lower boroughs of NYC has
weakened. Line of storms over eastern PA will move into NJ late
today into early this evening. The northern portion of this line
should weaken this evening, but may still be capable of
producing moderate to locally heavy rainfall just as it
reaches the NE NJ zones. Otherwise, periods of light to moderate
rainfall expected tonight as the low passes S of Long Island.
The primary low should reform just off the NJ coast Fri morning
in response to shortwave energy rotating around the parent upper
low over the Great Lakes, prolonging precip into daytime Fri as
well while gusty winds back to the NE and then N through the
day.

Total QPF through Fri night will average either side of an inch
mi most places, with higher amts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in the
NYC metro area where heavy rain has already fallen today.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of a recent new moon (Nov. 9) and an area of low
pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast today should cause
another round of minor coastal flooding along the Long Island
south shore during the Friday daytime high tide cycle. Coastal
flood advisories are in effect for the south shore of Nassau
and Suffolk. N flow should prevent water levels from reaching
threshold elsewhere.

Blend of bias corrected NYHOPS and P-ETSS 50th percentiles used
for surge.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Behind the exiting low this weekend, a sprawling area of high
pressure gradually builds to the west into early next week, then
settles over the area mid to late next week. Below normal temps
this weekend should moderate to near normal Mon-Tue, and then to
a few degrees above normal Wed-Thu as heights also rise aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure consolidates off the northern Mid Atlantic coast
this evening, and remains nearly stationary tonight. The low
then slowly pulls away to the northeast tomorrow into tomorrow
night.

Flight categories lower to prevailing MVFR this evening at most
terminals, with pockets of IFR at a few terminals like KSWF,
KHPN, and KTEB. This takes a bit longer for eastern most
terminals. Remaining MVFR tonight for most terminals, but some
terminals lowering to IFR at some point late tonight or tomorrow
morning. More widespread IFR during the morning and towards
midday.

The winds will be more out of the NE this evening, with gusts
becoming more frequent later in the overnight into tomorrow
morning as the winds back more to true N.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely lowering flight categories through the
morning push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon and night: MVFR/IFR in rain. Rain/snow mix
possible at KSWF in the morning and then again in the evening.
Rain tapers off Friday night. N-NW winds gusts 20-25 kt,
strongest on Friday.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday and Monday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20 kt on Sunday.

Tuesday: VFR. Light winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings expanded to the eastern Sound/Bays of Long Island
into daytime Fri, and to most the outer ocean waters E of Fire
Island Inlet for tonight. Gale warnings remain in effect on the
near shore ocean waters for tonight into Fri afternoon. E flow
in these areas should gust to 35-40 kt mainly during the first
half of tonight, then as low pressure passing to the S slowly
pulls away on Fri winds should back NE-N and gust to 35 kt.

Did not extend the gale warning on the outer ocean waters into
daytime Fri due to uncertainty on low track and timing/strength
of stronger winds on the back side of the low. It is possible
these areas could be S of the low initially and experience SW
flow at first, then shift to NE-N later Fri as the low pulls
away to the E and could gust to 35 kt.

SCA cond in the form of hazardous ocean seas should linger on
the near shore ocean waters into Fri night and possibly into
Sat morning.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-340-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ331-380-383.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ332-340-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ335-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ338.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG