725
FXUS61 KOKX 301005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
605 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front to the south today will return north as a warm
front and lift through tonight into early Monday morning.
A cold front will approach from the west later Monday and pass
through Monday night, followed by high pressure building from
the northwest on Tuesday. The high will move out into the
Atlantic on Wednesday. A warm front will approach Wednesday
night and move across early Thursday, followed by a cold front
Thursday night. This front will slow down and stall to the south
on Friday, potentially lingering around into the start of next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Front is well to the south. A cool E flow will persist today,
with cloudy skies, patchy fog mainly in the morning, and
showers at times mainly inland via weak lift atop the sfc cold
pool. Temps will rise to the mid /upper 40s across S CT and
eastern Long Island, and the lower 50s elsewhere.

The front should return north as a warm front tonight, with
winds gradually veering SE and then S late tonight. Fog should
become widespread over a good portion of the area and especially
along the coast, where some dense fog cannot be ruled out, and
some sct showers are possible. Low temps in the 40s should occur
in the evening, then hold steady or slowly rise overnight. Some
spots in NYC and along the coast could get into the lower 50s
before daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front approaches Mon into Mon night. Sct showers are
possible in the daytime as heights aloft fall in general, but
the best forcing and heaviest rain will be with the front which
should begin to approach late day and come through at night.
Tstms are also possible, and SPC still maintains a slight svr
risk for wrnmost portions of the CWA. A marginal risk extends E
from there to cover the NYC metro area and SW CT. Instability is
meager and lapse rates poor but wind fields aloft suggest a low
end potential for some damaging wind gusts via downward
momentum transfer. It will be milder with high temps mostly in
the 60s, except reaching the lower 70s in the urban corridor of
NE NJ, and remaining in the 50s along S-facing coastlines mainly
out east. A dry and seasonably cool air mass will follow for
Tue on a gusty NW flow, with highs in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Periodic slight undulations in otherwise a mainly zonal flow for
the mid levels. These undulations move across the local area
Wednesday night through Friday. These indicate smaller
wavelength shortwaves within the mid levels that will help
provide vertical synoptic lift.

Airmass mainly dry and colder than normal Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Then, chances for rain showers Wednesday night through
early Friday. A few rain showers are possible late Wednesday
afternoon north and west of NYC, but those POPs are just slight
chance. A low chance of rain/snow mix across parts of the interior
Wednesday night but otherwise a plain rain event. Rain showers could
return for the start of next weekend. Regarding the forecast
temperatures, trending above normal Wednesday night through Thursday
night, then trending back down Friday through Saturday night.

Main chances of rain are Wednesday night through early Friday.
Minimal chances of rain for Friday afternoon through Friday
night when models show the front positioned farther south of the
local region. The longer duration of rainfall Wednesday night
through early Friday does not necessarily mean rainfall for the
entire time. It could very well be periodic or intermittent.

Frontal system will have associated warm front approach
Wednesday night into early Thursday followed by an associated
cold front. The cold front then slows down as the parent low
weakens as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes. The front may
linger nearby the area as a result, maintaining chance of rain
Thursday into early Friday.

Some model forecasts indicate rain showers moving back into the
area for start of next weekend with that same frontal
boundary. This is when model solutions diverge more. Confidence
lower in the forecast but felt enough signal is shown in the
forecast models to warrant having chance POPs for rain.

Regarding temperatures, they start out close to normal for highs
Tuesday and Wednesday and then average above normal for Thursday
and Friday. For the lows, they do not deviate much from normal
Tuesday night and then lows average above normal for Wednesday
night and Thursday night. Only time period with below freezing
temperatures across the interior is late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A frontal boundary remains southwest of the region through much
of the TAF period. Towards the end of the TAF period, late
tonight, the front moves northward over the area as a warm
front.

Into early this morning, rain shower chances mainly just for
terminals north of NYC and for CT terminals. Otherwise,
minimal shower activity expected through today. More rain shower
activity possible tonight.

Ceilings lowering to MVFR and IFR. Visibilities still mainly
VFR. Trend will be downward through early today for both
ceilings and visibility. Expecting mainly IFR ceilings and MVFR
visibilities for today. There will be some periods of LIFR
ceilings this morning. Some brief improvement to MVFR ceilings
forecast for this afternoon. Not all TAFs have this, CT
terminals and KISP do not.

Mainly IFR to LIFR ceilings expected for tonight. Fog becoming
more of an issue tonight as well with forecast visibilities
lowering to IFR and locally LIFR.

Regarding winds, they stay in a general easterly flow near 5 to
10 kts through much of the TAF period. 30 hr NYC TAFs have
more southerly component towards early Monday with wind speeds
around 10-12 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely to refine timing of categorical changes. For
early today, MVFR could last a few hours longer than forecast.

Less confidence on MVFR this afternoon. This may be shorter
duration than forecast. Ceilings could very well fluctuate
between MVFR and IFR this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: Fog, chances of showers. LLWS SW winds 40 kt at 2kft.
IFR to LIFR. Some improvement in afternoon with potential for
MVFR. S-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Monday night: Showers. Possible thunderstorms. MVFR to IFR. LIFR
possible. SW wind gusts near 20 kt, eventually becoming NW
wind gusts near 20 kt late.

Tuesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible at night with a chance of rain
showers. SE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain showers.
SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters due to elevated seas
still in the 5-6 ft range. These should come down below 5 ft
this morning, possibly lingering until early afternoon out east.


Areas of fog are likely tonight into Fri morning, and a dense
fog advy may be needed for part of all of the waters during
this time frame.

SCA cond likely to return after a warm frontal passage late
tonight into Mon, with S flow gusting to 25-30 kt on the ocean,
ern Sound and the bays of Long Island, and seas building to 5-7
ft. Peak winds Mon evening may hit minimal gale force as a 60-65
kt LLJ passes overhead, but have held off a gale watch as
duration of these stronger winds if they were to occur would be
short, and have mentioned just ocnl 35 kt gusts. SCA cond
likely on all waters late Mon night into Tue in post-frontal NW
flow.

Longer term, SCA conditions for elevated seas probable for much
of the time frame. More widespread SCA gusts seem probable for
most waters on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some localized minor flooding, mainly urban and poor drainage, is
possible late Mon and Mon ngt with a frontal sys.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
More sites are forecast to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks
for tonight around times of high tide. This expands beyond the
shorelines of Fairfield CT to also include some other adjacent
shoreline areas along the western Sound as well as the Long
Island South Shore Bays and the Lower NY Harbor.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM