What's Happening In Newington

395
FXUS61 KOKX 231532
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system impacting the area today will move east tonight
as offshore low pressure develops. The low will move farther out
into the Atlantic on Wednesday, then high pressure will build
from the west Wednesday night. Weak low pressure will pass to
the southwest on Christmas Day, with high pressure briefly
returning at night. Another low will pass nearby from Friday
into Saturday, followed by another frontal system Sunday into
Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Winter weather advisories remain in effect for most areas well
  NW of NYC. The advisory is partly impact-based due slick
  conditions expected on colder, untreated surfaces, and heavy
  travel prior to Christmas Day.

* Light to occasionally moderate snow continues inland this
  morning as the warm front lifts into the area. Snow has mixed
  with or changed to rain in NYC and along the coast. Inland
  areas could also mix with rain this afternoon.

* Total accumulations: 3-5 and locally up to 6 inches well
  inland/higher elevations, 1-2 and locally up to 3 inches for
  most of the rest of the interior, and little to no
  accumulation for NYC and the coast.

Bumped up snowfall amts inland based on spotter reports already
indicating 4-5 inches in parts of Orange and 2 inches in
Rockland, and with radar showing a persistent band bringing
moderate snow as far SE as KTEB/KHPN. In NYC and along the
coast, blyr warning has changed precip to rain, occasionally
going back to snow in/around NYC and western Long Island when
precip intensity picks up. Warmer air should continue to make
its way slowly north through the afternoon, pushing the rain/snow
line northward as well. Inland areas may remain mostly snow, but
mix with rain as precip ends this afternoon.

Temperatures climb above freezing by afternoon as precip begins
to taper off, even inland, with highs from the mid/upper 30s
inland to the lower 40s in the NYC metro area and right along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front moves through tonight, with a tightening pressure
gradient as the offshore low intensifies and strong high
pressure starts to build from the west. This will promote an
increasing NW flow, especially late tonight. Lows will be in the
lower/mid 30s.

Gusty flow continues Wednesday with generally dry conditions and
mostly clear skies, especially into the afternoon. NW winds of
15-20mph with gusts up to 35 mph are possible and will be
strongest in the morning. By afternoon, high pressure moves
closer and weakens the pressure gradient, allowing winds to
weaken. Highs will be in the low 40s.

Weaker winds Wednesday night will allow for a cooler night as
high pressure overhead will provide a better chance for
radiational cooling. Lows will be in the 20s areawide.

A weak frontal system moves through Christmas Day, but other
than a wind shift from the SW to the NW, the day should be
mostly dry and seasonable with highs in the low 40s. High
pressure builds into the area from the north allowing for cold
air to infiltrate once again. Lows Christmas night will be in
the teens inland to 20s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Accumulating snow possible Friday into Saturday.

* Chances for light rain and snow late Saturday night into
  Sunday night.

The long term period remains active as a series of northern
stream frontal systems impacts the region. There is a lot of
uncertainty with the timing and track of these lows, and
therefore the potential impacts the systems will have across the
region.

With the high to the north, and potentially colder air in
place, another northern stream frontal system is likely to
impact the region Friday into Saturday. A lot of uncertainty
remains with the track and timing of the low, with some global
guidance keeping the low farther to the south and west, and
slower, with far less impacts, while other global guidance
tracks the low closer, and quicker, to the region, with the
potential for more significant precipitation, snow accumulation,
and impacts. With the uncertainty have followed the NBM
deterministic guidance. As a result, with colder air now
expected to be in place, the precipitation is expected to be
snow across the region, potentially beginning as a rain/snow mix
along the coast, Friday morning, and continuing through
Saturday. Currently the best timing for accumulating snow will
be Friday afternoon into late Friday night. And depending is
warmer air can move in aloft late Friday into Friday night,
there is a low chance of light freezing rain across portions of
northeastern New Jersey into the Lower Hudson Valley, and
possible into southwestern Connecticut.

The cold air potentially retreats Saturday night into Sunday as
yet another frontal system impacts the area late Saturday night
into Sunday. This system is currently forecast to track west,
well inland, of the region, with the precipitation being mainly
a snow/rain mix, going over to all rain for a time Sunday.

Dry weather looks to returns Monday.

Once again there is a lot of uncertainty with the timing and
tracks of the lows during the extended period, so remain up to
date with the forecasts and potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front approaches and lifts through the region today. A
cold front moves through in the evening.

Sub VFR through the day. IFR through the morning and late
afternoon as light snow and rain continues. Precipitation
changes into all rain late morning into early afternoon at most
terminals, with KHPN changing over in the late afternoon and
likely remaining all snow in KSWF. Precipitation ends by late
afternoon as light rain or drizzle, especially across coastal
terminals. Improvement to VFR does not occur until after 00Z as
cigs lift.

A general S or SW flow continues through the day, speeds under
10 kt. Flow veers W, then NW, tonight behind a cold frontal
passage. Speeds increase into Wed AM, and gusts 25-30kt develop
and persist into Wednesday afternoon.

Expected total snow accumulations today:

KSWF: 3-4 inches
KHPN: 2 inches
KTEB: 1 inch
KBDR/KEWR/KLGA/KJFK: No more than one half inch
KISP/KGON: Little/no accumulation

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories with the snow
and rain.

Timing of precip and changeover may be off by an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. W winds 15-20G25-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. WSW winds 10 kt.

Friday: VFR in the morning, becoming IFR w/ snow.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR with AM snow. Improving to VFR in the
afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect tonight for the ocean waters as NW winds
gust over 25 kt following a cold fropa. These gusts will
increase across all the waters late tonight allowing for
widespread SCA conditions on all waters. These conditions
persist through much of the day on Wed. Gale Watches are also
in effect for the ocean zones on Wed as there may be a period
of gusts in excess of 35 kt from morning into early afternoon.

SCA conditions subside Wed night as high pressure builds into
the area.

With low pressure tracking near the waters on Christmas Day
winds and seas on the ocean waters will be at SCA levels and
subside at night as high pressure briefly builds into the area.
Another low will pass near the waters Fri-Sat with SCA
conditions developing on the ocean waters Fri night, and
continuing into Sat.

Wind gusts/seas fall below advisory levels Sat evening as high
pressure briefly builds in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     CTZ005.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NJZ002-004-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET/MW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET/DR
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW