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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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359 FXUS61 KOKX 030303 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1003 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is increasing in another shot of frigid air for this weekend with potential for cold weather headlines. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry and cold thru Thursday. 2) An Arctic front will bring a chance for light snow on Friday, and another shot of frigid air for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Temps have been on the milder side today, with Central Park just having surpassed 32 as of 1 PM. Fcst daytime temps through the near term should be somewhat milder than NBM is forecasting, with highs in the mid/upper 30s in most places on Tue, and 30-35 on Wed. There could be some flurries or light snow mainly across the NYC metro area and Long Island Tue night with an upper trough passing through. Worst case scenario still looks like a dusting of accumulation. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Guidance continues to agree on a low dropping down from Canada sometime on Friday and passing well to our north as it drags a cold front through the area Friday night. A very cold air mass will build in behind this front characterized by 850mb temps around -20C and dewpoints below 0F. In terms of sensible weather, some light snow will be possible mainly late Friday into Friday night. Snow at first will likely be more light in a warm advection regime and then potentially become showery or squall like with the passing of the cold front. Details on snow squall activity will become clearer later this week. It is too early for snow accumulation forecasts but moisture is very limited with this system. NBM QPF mean for Friday and Saturday is under a tenth of an inch for the entire area. While snow ratios will likely be higher than 10:1, this looks like a sub-advisory event. What will end up being more impactful will be the cold air combined with strong winds. As the surface low heads east it looks to deepen to 980 mb or even lower. To our west, a 1030+ mb high builds in. This will create a strong pressure gradient over the area and lead to potential Wind Advisory criteria for Saturday. Additionally, there is potential for Cold Weather headlines Friday night, Saturday night and Sunday night with Saturday night looking like the coldest. Current wind chill forecast of -10F to around -18F across the area for Saturday night is just below Extreme Cold Warning criteria. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR as high pressure gradually builds in from the west through tonight. A weak disturbance pushes through the area tomorrow night bringing cloud cover with perhaps near MVFR cigs briefly into Wednesday morning. While unlikely, -SHSN is possible but not confident enough in occurrence to include in the TAFs at this time. NW winds at 10kt or less will continue to diminish overnight and may go light and variable. Winds back to the W Tuesday morning then eventually SW by early afternoon, remaining at or below 10 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Wind direction may average close to 310 magnetic at times through this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday Night: VFR. Very low chance of MVFR and light snow showers Tuesday night. Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow. WNW gusts 25-30 kt Friday night. Saturday: VFR. NW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... NW winds continue to diminish. SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters as seas gradually subside from 4-7 ft through tonight. An Arctic front will bring strengthening winds and building seas on Friday, with gales possible Friday night through Saturday. Freezing spray could be moderate to heavy at times this weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...Goodman/JT AVIATION...MW MARINE...Goodman/JT |
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