Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
448 FXUS61 KOKX 021837 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 237 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach Tuesday night into Wednesday, then move across from late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Strong high pressure will follow from the west beginning later Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper level ridge remains across the northeast, with surface high pressure becoming centered over the area tonight. Another cold night is expected with decent radiational cooling conditions. Did not go as low as MOS with some high clouds expected to be streaming overhead tonight. Temperatures across the interior and in the LI Pine Barrens should be able to get down to the low 40s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure shifts offshore to our southeast on Friday but will remain in control through the weekend. Moisture increases a bit with somewhat of a return flow, bringing dewpoints back up to the 50s and low 60s. High temperatures trend up through the weekend with a W/SW flow, increasing heights and sunny skies. Highs each day will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. These values are short of any records by a few degrees, but well above normal for early October. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Points: * High pressure will remain in place along the coast through daytime Tue with dry conditions. * The high will slide east Tue night as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers are likely from Tue night into early Thu with the frontal approach/passage, especially daytime Wed into Wed evening. * Temps will be quite warm Mon/Tue, with highs 10-15 degrees above normal. With clouds and precip around and the area still in the warm sector most of the day on Tue, temps on Wed should still range 5-10 degrees above normal. With the passage of the front, temps on Thu should be a couple of degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure builds southward into the region through the TAF period. VFR conditions. NE to E wind gives way to a hybrid E to SE synoptic/seabreeze flow this afternoon. Winds becoming light and variable or prevailing SW to W tonight. SW winds increase through Friday morning and prevail at around 10kt in the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday afternoon-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 2AM for the ocean waters as seas remain elevated. Thereafter, conditions remain below SCA criteria as high pressure remains in control. && .HYDROLOGY... QPF from Tue night into Thu morning could be close to an inch. No accompanying hydrologic issues expected attm. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/JT NEAR TERM...JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...JC MARINE...BG/JT HYDROLOGY...BG/JT |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.