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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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529 FXUS61 KOKX 152147 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 547 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front approaches tonight and lifts across the area Sunday morning. A strong cold approaches Sunday afternoon and evening and moves across the region through Monday. High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday. A fast moving frontal system moves across the area Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure may return Friday into next Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Forecast on track this evening. High pressure remains offshore through tonight, and weakens somewhat toward morning as a warm front approaches from the south. Fog and drizzle are expected to redevelop tonight, especially with the approach of the warm front. While dense fog is not expected at this time, there is a possibility of areas of dense fog toward daybreak Sunday morning. Lift along with warm front also may bring some light rain in addition to the drizzle. Temperatures will be non diurnal, lowering this evening, and then rising through the remainder of tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... A warm front moves north of the region early in the day Sunday, and with the area warm sectored, once precipitation ends in the morning, much of the rest of the day will be dry. Temperatures will be nearly 15 degrees above normal across the region. With a long southerly fetch low level moisture will be increasing during the afternoon and into the evening, with precipitable water values approaching 1 inch late in the day, and nearly 1.5 inches Sunday night, about as high as measured this time of year. Increasing lift with a developing pre frontal trough will lead to period of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall. Add some elevated instability and CAPE along with the lift will lead to the potential of isolated thunderstorms inland, while a strong marine influence to the east will limit instability. Rainfall rates may be near 0.50 inches per hour at times, and local flooding of urban and poor drainage areas will be possible, and the entire region remains in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, and localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out especially across the far eastern areas which will see higher rainfall totals. These higher totals across the east will be associated with the slower movement of the pre frontal and cold front as waves of low pressure develop as the front moves off shore. With the slower movement of the cold front, chances of precipitation linger through the day Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Points *A few lingering showers possible across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut Monday evening. *Dry conditions return late Monday night and should prevail through mid week. *Another frontal system moves across the area Thursday into Thursday night bringing the next chance for showers. *Temperatures look to average above through Thursday before trending near to slightly below normal to end the week. The cold front will continue moving offshore Monday evening. A wave of low pressure likely forms on the front which could help linger a few showers across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut in the evening. The front and associated wave should pass far enough offshore to bring an end to any showers by midnight across these areas. Otherwise, clouds will gradually clear from west to east through day break Tuesday. The upper trough axis pushes east Tuesday morning as an upper ridge builds over the northeast. The trough that passes offshore will become a cutoff low over the western Atlantic as it gets trapped beneath the upper ridge. The upper ridge will then slowly push east through Thursday as the next amplifying upper trough quickly approaches. At the surface, high pressure will be in control Tuesday and Wednesday. The frontal system associated with the aforementioned next upper trough will quickly move across the region Thursday into Thursday night. Have held onto a 50 percent chance for showers late Thursday/Thursday night as there are still timing and strength differences with the system. The NBM probabilities for observing greater than 1 inch in a 12 or 24 period have fallen and are now generally less than 5 percent, which seems reasonable given the progressive nature of the modeled system. The front should be offshore to end the week. The associated upper trough may become a cutoff low near or just off the New England coast late Friday into the first half of the weekend as high pressure starts building in from the west. This could create a tight pressure gradient and lead to a windy Friday. NBM deterministic temperatures have trended cooler for Friday with at least modest cold advection and W-NW flow. Depending on how quick the offshore upper low departs will determine if the surface high can settle over the region next Saturday. Temperatures should trend closer to seasonal normals for next Saturday as the air mass starts to moderate. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front moves through tonight. A cold front approaches from the west late Sunday. IFR/LIFR through the TAF period. ANy MVFR early this evening will become IFR shortly. Fog is likely and drizzle is possible tonight. A break in precip tomorrow morning. Showers are expected to start at around 20-23Z Sunday. Winds become primarily S closer to 5 kts tonight with a warm frontal passage and speed steadily increasing to 10kt late tonight, very early tomorrow morning. By 12Z Sunday, S wind at 10-20kt with gusts upwards of 25-30kt will be possible, especially along the coast. LLWS is expected by 6Z at 2kft from the S at 40kt. This will continue to increase into Sunday morning and afternoon to 50kt but become more confined to the immediate NYC and eastern coastal terminals. Up to 60kt LLWS possible at KJFK. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Confidence is low in occurrence of MVFR this afternoon. Currently MVFR is in TAFs 18Z-00Z, but should trends not agree by 18Z routine TAFs, may opt to keep cigs/vsbys at IFR levels for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Confidence is higher in IFR/LIFR tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday Night: IFR with showers. LLWS ramps down Sunday night. Monday: Rain showers early, mainly east of NYC terminals with MVFR to IFR possible. Rain showers taper off afternoon into night from west to east. Conditions eventually return to VFR. Possible NW wind gusts afternoon into early evening to 20 kt. Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Thursday: MVFR/IFR in showers. W 10-15 kts, G 20-25 kts. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Main concern for tonight is potential of dense fog. Visibilities should lower this evening and could near 1 nm and potentially lower late tonight as a warm front approaches. A dense fog advisory may be needed late tonight. Otherwise, conditions should remain below SCA levels across the waters tonight into early Sunday morning. An increasing southerly slow during Sunday and into Sunday night, ahead of an approaching frontal system will approach gale force gusts, especially over the outer ocean waters. Confidence in gale gusts across the remainder of the waters has lowered as a strong low level inversion will prevent the higher winds aloft from mixing to the water surface. However, with uncertainty will leave up the Gale Watch for all the waters at this time. A the cold front moves into the waters and waves of low pressure develop along the front late Sunday night toward Monday morning, winds and gusts will diminish and drop to less than SCA levels, with ocean seas remaining at SCA levels. Ocean seas will remain elevated at or above 5 ft Monday night through Thursday mainly due to lingering SE swells. Winds on all waters should be below SCA levels Monday night through Wednesday. The next chance for SCA winds will be Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front moves across the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... A frontal system is expected to produce a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain Sunday evening through Monday evening, with up to 2.25 inches across southeastern Connecticut and the twin forks of Long Island. Localized higher amounts are possible, especially across the eastern areas. Heavy downpours could lead to nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas, especially Sunday night and Monday morning. While localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out, the overall risk is low. No hydrologic impacts are expected Monday night through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/MET NEAR TERM...DS/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...BR MARINE...DS/MET HYDROLOGY...DS/MET |
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