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184
FXUS61 KOKX 031946
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
346 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) No significant impacts expected from possible showers Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.

2) Dry next week with coolest conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will shift to our northeast tonight and then the
Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. An amplified upper trough will dig
down into the Great Lakes region, sending a cold front towards the
area. The upper trough and its associated shortwave energy will
interact with the coastal front/baroclinic zone just south of the
area to develop a weak wave of low pressure Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. The low should develop a few showers across
the area, mainly in the afternoon and evening. There is some
concern that lingering surface ridging/dry air may limit shower
development, especially inland. The greatest likelihood of
showers is close to the coast in the afternoon and evening with
chance PoPs further inland. Rainfall amounts will be light with
generally a few hundredths inland to around a tenth closer to
the coast. There are no flooding impacts expected.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure dominates the weather pattern at the surface  next
week with dry weather expected. Monday may be a bit breezy as the
high builds into the area and temperatures should end up close to
normal. The coolest airmass of this fall will advect into the area
Monday night into Tuesday and then remain in place into Wednesday.
Lows Monday night will fall into the 40s for the most part with the
coolest readings well inland. The NYC metro may remain in the lower
50s. The coldest night may end up being Tuesday night as high
pressure settles overhead. Interior locations could fall into the
mid/upper 30s, especially if skies remain clear and winds light. Its
several days out, but would need to watch for frost potential in
these areas. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will pass to the north tonight and then retreat to
the northeast on Sunday. Weak low pressure will pass to the
south Sunday afternoon.

SE sea breezes are in at KJFK/KBDR/KGON, and may reach
KISP/KLGA/KEWR toward evening. Otherwise NE winds around 10 kt
should veer more E less than 10 kt this evening, then back
slightly more NE around 10 kt late tonight into Sunday morning.

Flight cat mainly VFR, with lowering cigs Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled AMD possible for timing of sea breeze arrival at
KEWR/KLGA.

It is possible some light rain with MVFR cigs could arrive at the
NYC metros as early as 16Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon and night: MVFR cond likely with light rain,
especially for the NYC metro and coastal terminals. IFR cond
possible at KJFK/KISP/KGON at night.

Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt mainly E of KBDR/KISP.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through tonight. A
developing wave of low pressure near the waters could increase
NE-E wind gusts occasionally close to 25 kt on the ocean. Seas
also may build to around 5 ft briefly. Thinking any SCA
conditions will be marginal and brief and have elected to hold
off on an SCA issuance. Will mention occasional 25 kt gusts and
5 ft seas in the nearshore ocean zones.

Conditions briefly subside Sunday night before increasing again on
Monday, especially late in the day into the night. Confidence is
slowly increasing for the eventual need of an SCA for wind gusts 25-
30 kt on most of the waters during this time period.
Winds should subside early Tuesday morning leading to a relatively
tranquil conditions through Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DS