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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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946 FXUS61 KOKX 240524 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 124 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure exerts control through early Friday. A cold front moves through the area Friday evening into Friday night. High pressure briefly builds in behind the cold frontal passage Saturday, before another frontal system moves through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Upper ridge axis noses through the region tonight with moderating Canadian high pressure sliding offshore. Dry with near seasonable temps and still comfortable Tds tonight. Overnight lows will be a few degree warmer than last few nights (mid 60s to around 70s) for most of the area, but could still radiate to around 60s across pine barrens and interior valleys. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key points... * Heat alerts in effect for Friday. One day of 100 to 105F heat indices expected for most of the area Friday * Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible Friday aft/eve, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Increasingly hot and humid conditions are expected during the short term period. Upper lever ridge nosing into the region on Thursday, flattens Thursday Night into Friday, as a northern stream shortwave slides from Ontario/Quebec towards northern New England. At the surface, moderating Canadian high pressure continues to slide offshore and get absorbed into larger Bermuda high on Thursday. Return flow strengthens on Thursday as Bermuda high takes control. WAA and moisture advection is gradual on Thursday, with peak axis of heat and humidity not reaching the area until Thursday Night Friday from the NW, 850 mb temps raining to about 17c by late afternoon, in a deeply mixed S/SW flow. Away from coast, with deep mixing, this should allow temps to rise into the lower 90s, but with TDs in the mid to upper 60s, heat index will likely remain similar and peak out in the lower 90s range for NE NJ, northern NYC, W LI, LoHud and SW CT. Closer to the south facing coasts, maritime influence will likely cap temps in the mid 80s. Increasingly warm and muggy Thu Night in gusty S/SW flow, with lows in the 70s. Peak heat and humidity continues on target for Friday with peak axis of heat (850mb temps of near 20c) sinking SE towards the region and likely moisture pooling ahead of approaching cold front (lower 70s to 75F Td) resulting in heat indices in the lower 100s to 105F for much of the area. Moderate confidence in widespread 105 F heat index coverage across NE NJ (have issued extreme heat watch), with low to moderate confidence elsewhere (heat advisory issued). With moderate to high confidence in extreme to near extreme heat potential have issued respective heat alerts to compliment messaging of one day of intense heat and humidity, allowing subsequent shifts to follow td trends and make decision on heat advisory vs extreme heat warning. In addition to the extreme heat threat, a cold front will be pressing down on a moderately to highly unstable airmass, with marginal deep layer shear presenting potential for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in the late aft/eve. Limiting factor for organized convection will be weak shortwave forcing this far south, as compared to central and northern New England, and weak mid-level lapse rates. Main conditional threat will be damaging wind gusts from wet downbursts in primarily a uni- directional WNW flow aloft, high PWAT environment with a bit of mid-level dry air entrainment potential, and steep low-level lapse rates. This forecast will be refined as we get closer to the event, and more confidence on synoptic and mesoscale details. Cold front expected to push SE of the region by midnight Friday as northern stream shortwave slides through northern New England, with a cooler and drier airmass filtering in its wake as high pressure builds into the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure quickly builds in behind a cold fropa and briefly settles over the region to start the weekend. The resultant flow ushers in a slightly cooler, drier air mass, offering some limited relief from the heat and humidity. Air temperatures and dew pts fall about 5 degrees relative to Friday, alleviating the peak of the heat, but afternoon highs likely still top the mid to upper 80s. With slightly lower humidity, heat indices are progged near or just above air temps, and an extension of the heat headlines appears unlikely at this time. Meanwhile, Southeast ridging remains anchored in place through early next week. A short wave disturbance rides over the ridge and through New England on Sunday, with the associated frontal system tracking through the local area. Showers and thunderstorms likely accompany the system at some point during the day, dependent on the surface features placement and timing, which some disagreement amongst global models will need to be resolved before pinning down. Conditions dry out once again Monday and Tuesday, with another frontal boundary approaching from the west into mid next week. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. Southerly winds become light SW to light and variable through 12Z. Winds then pick back up out of the SSW after 12Z and increase to 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt possible through about 00Z, tapering thereafter. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Can not rule out a few occasional guts over 25kt. Timing of gusts may be +/- 1 hour from TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday: VFR likely through morning, possibly followed by periods of sub VFR in showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. Southwest winds G15-20kt. Saturday: VFR with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and at night possible. Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any showers or thunderstorms. Monday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for the most part through Thursday AM. Marginal 25 kt gusts are possible in a S/SW flow late on Thursday aft into Thursday Night on the ocean waters and southern bays, and possibly Fri aft/eve ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold frontal passage Friday afternoon through the evening. There is potential for some of these to be severe. && .HYDROLOGY... Localized minor urban and poor drainage flooding is possible with isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity Friday aft/eve. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal system could produce locally heavy downpours on Sunday that result in mainly an minor urban and poor drainage flood threat with a low and localized flash flooding threat. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... With continued southerly flow on Thursday, a solid moderate risk anticipated with southerly wind waves building to 3 ft, residual 1-2 SE wind swell, and a wide tidal range with approach of new moon. There is potential for a late day high rip current risk across Nassau and Queens beaches with late day coastal jet development. A moderate to high rip current risk is likely on Friday with southerly wind waves building to 3 to 5 ft, and a wide tidal range with recent new moon. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temps maybe be approached on Friday July 25th. Current high temp records for the day ... EWR 99/2016 BDR 93/2001 NYC 97/1999 LGA 97/1999 JFK 93/2010 ISP 94/1987 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005>011. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ067>075- 078>080-176>179. NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002. Extreme Heat Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NJZ004-006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DR/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...BC MARINE...DR/NV HYDROLOGY...DR/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... |
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