What's Happening In Newington

225
FXUS61 KOKX 201835
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
235 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains south of the area tonight as Hurricane
Erin tracks northward over the Atlantic. Erin then tracks out to sea
through the end of the week as high pressure builds into the area. A
frontal system may produce chances for showers for the beginning of
next week. Please refer to NHC forecasts for further information on
Hurricane Erin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upr trough passes thru the area tngt. This will produce some rain
across the area, especially this eve. Moisture is fairly shallow per
the GFS and NAM time heights, indicating a lack of a tropical
connection. However, decent frogen around 2k ft is indicated,
especially tngt, which would serve to enhance lift and rainfall.
Because of this, went abv the NBM for rainfall amounts. There could
be an embedded tstm with the extra lift despite the limited
instability.

ENE winds will increase overnight, especially at the coasts, as the
pres gradient increases ahead of Erin. Streamlines show the flow
coming from the N Atlc, so cool temps tngt in the 50s and lwr 60s
with the rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Coastal flooding and dangerous surf will be the primary hazards Thu
and Thu ngt. Please see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for
details.

Erin makes the turn on Thu and heads out to sea. NE flow with
moisture transport at h85 should keep the area mostly cloudy to ovc
thru most of the day, particularly E. There could be a few pockets
of lgt rain or sprinkles, especially in the mrng, until subsidence
increases thru the day.

Winds will back and strengthen thru the day, with the strongest flow
in the aftn and eve attm. Strongest winds over ern cstl areas where
gusts 30-40 mph are possible.

The NBM was followed for temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pres builds in on Fri, with a dry airmass and decreasing nly
winds. The flow appears lgt enough by aftn allowing sea breezes
to develop. Highs in the lower 80s per the NBM.

Continues dry on Sat attm with highs again the the 80s per the NBM.
A sly return flow off the ocean so an increase in humidity can be
expected.

An approaching upr trop brings swly flow aloft on Sun, then the trof
slows over the region thru the beginning of next week. This should
keep temps on the cooler side of normal, and produce chances for
shwrs and perhaps isold tstms at times. The NBM was followed.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A frontal system moves through and weakens as it heads south
this evening.

MVFR in SHRA. Brief IFR possible in some SHRA. IFR conditions
then become more widespread this evening with showers becoming
less widespread by the overnight.

Winds E to NE 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 20kts. Winds
then back to NE at 10-15 kt this evening, and gusts 20-30 kt,
highest along the coast, develop late. NE gusts continue
Thursday 25-30kts, highest at the coastal terminals.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by an hour or
two.

Gusts this afternoon may be more occasional.

A rumble of thunder is possible late afternoon into the early
evening. However, with low confidence in the occurrence not
included in the forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday: Chance of showers in the morning with MVFR/IFR cond
still possible. NE winds 15-20kt G25-35kt, highest along the
coast. Improving to VFR by evening.

Friday: VFR. NE-N winds 15G20-25kt in the morning.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in any showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
All areas are now under a SCA for tngt, with the ocean going to
gales Thu and Thu ngt, and the remaining waters staying at SCA.
Dangerous/rough cond around inlets can be expected thru this period.

Winds decrease on Fri, but the ocean will need a SCA thru Sat and
perhaps Sun for lingering seas. All waters blw SCA lvls on Mon
attm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Around an inch of rain is possible thru tngt. Some locally higher
amounts are possible, particularly ern LI and ern CT, where
convergence of moisture and forcing is greatest. In general, there
is a chance for some pockets of minor urban and poor drainage
flooding thru tngt. If the locally hvy rain develops, there is a low
chance for an isold flash flood mainly ern areas. The area remains
in a mrgnl risk for excessive rainfall.

No significant hydrologic impacts are expected Fri-Tue.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current risk are in effect for all
Atlantic Ocean beaches through Friday as swell from Hurricane Erin
will bring life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Life-threatening surf and rip currents expected for the rest of this
week as building long period swells from Erin continue, peaking
Thu/Fri. Surf heights could reach 12-16 ft from Thu afternoon and
continuing into early Fri morning, as large, very long period swells
(10-11 ft @ 15-17 sec) arrive nearly head on at the beaches.

The threat for beach flooding, beach erosion and escarpment and
areas of dune erosion will increase with successive high tides thru
Thu night. Widespread areas of dune erosion are likely with
localized overwashes during the Thu evening and Fri morning high
tides. This high surf will be combined with elevated water levels as
we approach a new moon.

Widespread moderate coastal flooding is expected for southern
Queens, southern Nassau, and southwestern suffolk counties. For
eastern Long Island, moderate flooding will likely be more
localized, with north facing exposed shoreline areas along the
southern and eastern bays being the most susceptible due to to
enhanced wave action. This includes Orient Point.

Elsewhere, minor coastal flooding is expected with Thursday
evening`s high tide cycle for southern Brooklyn, the NY Harbor, and
much of the CT & NY coastlines along the Long Island Sound. Coastal
Flood Advisories have been issued in these areas.

Additional rounds of minor flooding are expected with Friday morning
and Friday evening`s high tide cycles. Advisories are in place for
the areas at highest risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday
     for CTZ009>011.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday
     for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ072-074-075.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ072-074-075.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM Thursday to 3 AM EDT Friday
     for NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for NYZ079-
     081.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday
     for NYZ080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for NYZ080-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ080-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC/JT
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BR