What's Happening In Newington

390
FXUS61 KOKX 102044
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
444 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore frontal boundary and area of low pressure track
further out in the Atlantic into tonight. High pressure then
builds into the region through Saturday. Low pressure and
associated cold front will impact the region Sunday into Monday.
High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Weak 1014 mb wave of low pressure along a frontal boundary off the
Delmarva shifts farther out to sea tonight as surface high pressure
centered well off to the north and west builds east.

With the exiting system, improving conditions can be expected
through this evening after the relatively dreary day. Showers have
already largely dissipated, with drying conditions this evening.

NE flow lightens and backs more N into tonight, and a much drier
air mass punches in, with cloud cover eroding as PWATs fall from
over 1.5 in to 0.5 in by daybreak Thursday. Lows tonight range
from around 60 in NYC, to the upper 40s in outlying locales of
the interior LoHud Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Return to warmer and drier weather on Thursday.

Abundant sunshine and deep mixing above 800 mb should allow
temperatures to rebound a good 10 degrees compared to Wednesday.
Afternoon highs top out within a degree or two of 80 for most
locales away from the immediate shoreline.

Light N flow continues through the day, and dew pts falling
down into the 40s keeps humidity levels low. Temperatures
Thursday night fall back into the 50s and 60s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM except for sky cover for the end of
the weekend and start of next week with forecast models showing an
upper level trough and cold front impacting the region.

The long term period starts off with high pressure building into the
area Friday and Saturday. The high then slides eastward, allowing an
upper level trough to move across the area. Some of the forecast
models are hinting at an area of low pressure developing at the base
of the trough as it swings across the region. So, expect clouds to
increase along with a chance of rain showers. NBM Sky grids seemed
too low, so increased cloud cover to make the forecast be more
mostly cloudy/overcast. Depending on the evolution of the trough
moving across the area and whether or not low pressure develops at
the base of the trough will depend on how much precipitation we see.

The trough moves east late Monday into Monday night with drier
conditions moving in for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds back into the region.

High temperatures through the long term will be in the 70s.
Lows will be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Offshore low pressure will gradually track away from the area into
Thursday, while high pressure builds in from the west.

Expect occasional MVFR ceilings this afternoon across the NYC
terminals, as well as KISP. Otherwise, this will be a VFR forecast
with gradual clearing through tonight.

Winds will be NE-N generally around 10 kt with occasional gusts near
20 kt this afternoon. Wind then become northerly tonight at less
than 10 kt. Late day seabreeze is possible at KJFK Thursday
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of improvement to VFR could vary by 1-2 hours.

Wind gusts may be more occasional in frequency.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday into Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR with a chance of
showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect until noon Thursday
on local ocean waters for elevated winds and seas. NE gusts up
to 25 kt persist into this evening before abating, but 5 to 6 ft
seas linger through Thursday morning or early afternoon before
subsiding.

Thereafter, conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria
on all local waters through this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
E flow 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will help build an E
wind wave component to 5-7 ft at 7-8 seconds. This combination
leads to a high rip current risk into this evening. Given wind
and wave direction will be parallel to the shoreline, surf
height is expected to top out around 4-5 ft. With a more N flow
on Thursday, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected. The
moderate risk will continue into Friday.

Given astronomically high water levels from a recent full moon,
we can expect another round of minor coastal flooding for some
locales along the western LI Sound and the back bays of Nassau
during the time of high tide on Thursday. Advisories are in
effect for these locations. Confidence is low elsewhere, but a
statement could issued later for localized minor if the threat
increases.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ071.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/DR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...