What's Happening In Newington

675
FXUS61 KOKX 151101
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
701 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable through Tuesday.

2) Water levels will be close to minor coastal flood benchmarks
through Wednesday for the nighttime high tide cycles.

3) A robust low pressure system may impact the area later this
week with another chance for severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Following a cold frontal passage this morning, dry and seasonable
conditions will be on tap through Tuesday. Aloft, the westerlies
will dominate the northern two thirds of the country with a
broad upper trough from the Northern Plains all the way to the
eastern seaboard. This will allow for cooler temperatures. At
the surface, weak high pressure builds east through Tuesday,
then offshore later in the day. Gusty NW winds this morning
will fall by afternoon. A return southerly flow sets up Tuesday
afternoon.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High astronomical tides due to the recent new moon will
gradually fall off through midweek. However, water levels will
be close to minor coastal flood benchmarks during the nighttime
high tide cycles for the more vulnerable locations of the south
shore of Nassau, coastal Fairfield, and portions of Lower NY
Harbor. Without much wind forcing, expect this to mainly be
statement worthy.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Warm advection showers, possibly a thunderstorm, will be on tap
for Wednesday. Best chance will be from NYC and points north
and west. Temperatures remain seasonable, but humidity will be
on the increase in a southerly flow.

A strong low pressure system may develop over the center of the
country and approach from the west later Wednesday night into
Thursday. SPC has portions of the area on Thursday (Day 5) with
a 15% chance of severe weather. Details regarding this possible
system will come into focus in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front passes offshore and out to sea today.

VFR thru the TAF period.

NW winds gusting to around 20kt today, with speeds decreasing
tngt. Winds back slightly to the W aft 12Z Tue.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ocnl gusts around 25kt likely today.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. NW flow backing to the W then SW thru the day.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with a chances of sub VFR conditions
increasing towards afternoon and evening with showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday: Sub VFR possible early, otherwise VFR with W winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions are forecast through Wednesday. During
the late afternoon hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday a few
southerly gusts may approach 20 kt, more so for the western
ocean waters. A low pressure system approaching Thursday is
forecast to bring SCA conditions to the waters with increasing
southerly winds and building seas.

Rip currents: A moderate risk of rip current development is
expected today and Tuesday with a lingering 2 to 3 ft light
southerly swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DW