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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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417 FXUS61 KOKX 130234 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 934 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Trends have been moving toward a weaker and more disorganized system later this week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry with seasonable temperatures through Tuesday night. 2) A series of cold fronts arrives Wednesday into Thursday bringing the chance of rain showers initially, possibly exiting as snow showers. This also brings a return to seasonably cold conditions later this week. 3) Keeping an eye out for another chance of low pressure development possible next weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure south of the region will keep conditions dry, with seasonable temperatures through Tuesday night. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front is forecast to move across the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring the return of a polar air mass to the region. With warmer air already in place, temperatures will remain above normal with the chance of rain showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. It`s likely that freezing temperatures do not arrive until midday Thursday, so expect any precipitation on Thursday to start as rain, then gradually change from rain to snow from NE to SW during the afternoon into the evening as the colder air filters into the region. No significant snowfall is expected with these cold fronts. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Behind the initial trough on Thursday and Friday, another piece of mid-level energy dives in from Canada resulting in a deepening of a trough to the west. This may result in another opportunity for a low pressure development over the area any time between late Saturday and Monday. Trends in this timeframe will be closely monitored in subsequent forecasts for any potential impacts to the area, but variability in the timing, strength of the trough, and presence of cold air is too uncertain to provide any details at this time. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR with high pressure south of the area through Tuesday. The high moves offshore Tuesday night as low pressure tracks through eastern Canada with a cold front approaching the region. There may be a few sprinkles or light rain showers at KSWF after 22Z Tuesday. W winds 10kt or less expected into Tuesday morning. Around 17Z winds back to more SW to S and increase to 10-13kt. There may be a few occasional gusts at the metro terminals during Tuesday afternoon, however, with low confidence and uncertain timing not included in the forecast. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional gusts possible Tuesday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday night: VFR. Wednesday: Showers possible, especially in the afternoon into the night. MVFR or lower possible. Thursday: Chance of rain and/or snow with MVFR possible. WNW wind gusts 15-20kt during the afternoon and through the night. Friday: VFR. WNW wind gusts 15-20kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR, slight chance of light rain and snow late in the day. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A SCA continues on the central and eastern ocean zones through the overnight, before diminishing around or a little before sunrise Tuesday morning. Sub-advisory conditions are expected during Tuesday, although a SW flow increases later in the day. Small craft conditions are likely to return for the ocean waters, and possibly the south shore bays and far eastern portions of LI Sound Tuesday night. Small craft seas may linger out on the eastern ocean waters during a portion of Wednesday, otherwise sub advisory conditions should prevail late in the day and into Wednesday night. SCA conditions are expected to return to the ocean waters Thursday with wave heights above 5 feet and some gusts 25-30kt. This persists through Friday with sub-SCA conditions on all waters expected by late Friday night. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ DISCUSSION...BC/MW AVIATION...MET MARINE...BC/MW |
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