What's Happening In Newington

995
FXUS61 KOKX 041133
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing emphasis on advisory level heat and humidity from
Thursday through Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. High rip current risk for today.

2. Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy downpour
and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday into the weekend.

3. Very warm and very humid for Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Latest RCMOS supports the previously fcst high rip current risk
for today given residual 4-5 ft SSE swell with periods of 7-8
sec.

At least a moderate risk is likely for Wed as SSE swells
continue to subside to 3-4 ft, but may remain high at the
eastern Suffolk beaches with the higher swells out east and
ebb tide from late morning into early afternoon.

A high risk may also be possible late day Thu at the NYC,
Nassau, and western Suffolk beaches as SSW flow increases to
near 20 kt with wind waves building to 4 ft.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Scattered afternoon shower/thunderstorm threat returns on Wed and
continues through the weekend as region lies on NW edge of
Bermuda ridging. This will also bring a very warm and very humid
air mass into the region Thu thru the weekend with deep SW flow
and H8 temps rising to 18-20C.

Forcing will be from weak convectively enhanced vorts rounding
the upper ridge Wed and Thu, and then approaching weak northern
stream shortwaves Fri into the weekend. Focus on Wednesday will be
a dissipating frontal boundary working through the area, with
possible weak wave development, with lee/pre-frontal troughing the
focus through the weekend.

This setup will present an isolated severe and flash flood
threat each aft/early eve. HREF attm shows only 20-30% chance of
1 inch of rain in 3 hr across parts of NE NJ Wed afternoon, but
as has been the case with previous events, HREF probabilities for
heavy rainfall amts in a short time frame are likely to increase
as we get closer to the actual time frames of occurrence.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Temps should rise to at least to the upper 80s to around 90 for NE
NJ/NYC metro and the interior, with dewpoints in the mid 70s, from
Thu through Mon. GFS MOS guidance shows lower dewpoints but higher
temperatures compared to NBM. Both bring heat index values to
95-100 on Thu, 95-104 Fri, and continuing above 95 in
urban/coastal areas and across the interior river valleys from
Sat-Mon. This should warrant heat advisory issuances as outlined.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure passes over the area today.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Low chance of MVFR/IFR,
mainly for outlying terminals, late tonight into Wednesday
morning in fog or low stratus.

Light N/NE winds this morning eventually turn SE by the
afternoon with speeds generally less than 10kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD not expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday through Saturday: MVFR or lower flight cat at times
in showers/tstms, highest chance for western terminals. Winds
mainly S-SW.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters out 20 nm, and lowers
from west to east this morning into early afternoon per NWPS
forecast of gradually subsiding seas.

Could see a period of winds/seas approaching 25 kt and 5 ft on
the ocean waters W of Moriches Inlet from late day into the
evening on Thu.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...Goodman