What's Happening In Newington

133
FXUS61 KOKX 050231
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing chances for thunderstorms late Saturday, with the
Marginal Risk expanded south into most of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot Fri and Sat with highs in the 80s and 90s.

2) Thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal passage late Sat.

3) Chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Some
thunderstorms could be strong with gusty winds and result in
locally heavy rain.

4) Cooler and drier airmass to start next week but will trend
warmer heading into latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The heat will build Fri and Sat with h85 rising abv 15C.
Dewpoints modeled to remain in the 50s to lower 60s should keep
heat indices generally blw 95F. As a result, a Heat Advisory
does not appear warranted attm. Not much wind on Fri especially
across the interior, then a solid swly breeze develops by Sat
aftn across the entire area ahead of an approaching cold front.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
At least sct tstms are becoming more likely for late Sat as a
cold front approaches then passes thru the area. There are some
timing challenges, with a faster front producing more impacts
due to earlier tstms tapping into aftn instability. The NAM is
trending faster, while the GFS is relatively slower. The NBM
pops which were used are heavily biased towards the slower
data, with most of the action aft 00Z. Based on the falling
heights and expected instability, would not be surprised to see
pops trend a bit quicker with subsequent updates.

Based on the airmass, would expect damaging winds and hail to be
the main threats, especially with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Some
locally hvy rainfall will of course also be possible with any
intense convection. Based on a modeled 5-10kt sely storm motion
however, the main flood threat is expected to be minor urban and
poor drainage attm.

SPC has expanded the Day 3 Marginal Risk swd into most of the
area except LI.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
An unsettled weather pattern remains for Sunday. Cool pool aloft and
a weakening surface cold frontal boundary will keep the potential
for showers and thunderstorms.

There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
Thunderstorm chances were increased manually based upon model
consensus of mid level cool pool and vort max moving across. Some
parts of the region, more northeastern portions towards Southeast
Connecticut, have showers likely in the forecast. At the surface, a
cold front will be moving into the area and eventually pass south of
Long Island. The parent low attached to this front is forecast to
gradually weaken during the day as it moves southward.

The consensus model parameters regarding the thunderstorms include,
the 0-6 km AGL bulk shear potentially increasing to near 35 kt. The
lifted index drops to near -1 to -4. So, the environment becomes
more unstable and there is enough shear for possibly some strong to
local severe thunderstorms. Model soundings show inverted V
signature and models have a consensus of near 500 to 1000 J/kg of
downdraft CAPE on Sunday, indicating a strong wind gust potential
for some thunderstorms.

While not much moisture is available with the northwesterly flow in
the atmospheric column, some backbuilding of thunderstorms will be
possible as low level flow may present more in the way of
convergence. Therefore, there may also be some minor flooding in
poor drainage, urban and low lying areas with thunderstorms.


.KEY MESSAGE 4:
Shower and thunderstorm chances lower Sunday night with drier air
working into the region as the weakening cold front pushes farther
south of the region. High pressure and eventually upper level
ridging gradually move into the area for early next week.

A mainly dry and cooler airmass to start the week will trend warmer
during the week as high pressure becomes more Western Atlantic
based. Along with this, ridging aloft is forecast to weaken. There
could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm within latter part of
the week. Temperatures forecast to reach around 90 degrees for
mainly the urban and interior parts of the region Wednesday and
Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period.

Winds will continue to weaken tonight, becoming light and
variable. WNW-WSW flow Friday morning will quickly become SW-S
late morning into the afternoon around 10 kt. Speeds will likely
end up slightly stronger for coastal terminals, especially JFK
and ISP. Winds begin to weaken after 00z Sat.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of sea breeze at JFK and LGA may be off by 1-2 hours.
Low chance for S sea breeze at EWR and TEB late Friday
afternoon/evening.

An occasional gust around 15 kt possible at EWR Friday
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a late afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. SW wind gusts around 20 kt in the
afternoon and evening.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions with possible
showers/thunderstorms.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain below SCA levels on the ocean west of Fire
Island Inlet. The SCA has been cancelled. Otherwise, all waters
are expected to remain blw SCA lvls on Fri. Increasing SW winds
on Sat ahead of a cold front could approach SCA lvls by aftn,
especially on the ocean.

Mainly Sub-SCA conditions forecast for the coastal waters Sunday
through early next week. The exception is southeast ocean waters
Sunday night into Monday from Moriches to Montauk when SCA level
conditions are forecast of near 5 ft seas and wind gusts near 25
kt.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the
ocean beaches due to southerly flow and building seas for the
rest of today as well as Friday. Onshore winds and thereby
fetch are relatively higher across the ocean shorelines of NYC
through Western Suffolk late Friday so a high risk of rip
currents is possible late in the day for those locations. For
Saturday, SW winds increase to near 15 kt with wind gusts in the
20-25 kt range and seas continue to build, with a forecast high
rip current risk for all ocean beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:

Friday, June 5

KEWR: 95 (2021)
KBDR: 87 (2025)
KNYC: 99 (1925)
KLGA: 94 (2010)
KJFK: 90 (2010)
KISP: 88 (2010)


Saturday, June 6

KEWR: 97 (2021)
KBDR: 93 (2021)
KNYC: 98 (1925)
KLGA: 95 (2021)
KJFK: 90 (1968)
KISP: 90 (2021)


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures:

Saturday, June 6

KEWR: 71 (2021)
KBDR: 67 (2025)
KNYC: 77 (1925)
KLGA: 76 (2021)
KJFK: 69 (2024)
KISP: 68 (2024)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/JM/DS