833
FXUS61 KOKX 311949
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
349 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes well to our north tonight and drags a cold front
through the area Friday afternoon. High pressure returns to the area
for the weekend. High pressure drifts east Sunday night into
Monday as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm
front moves northeast Tuesday with a cold front passing through on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A shortwave trough and associated surface low will pass well north
of the area tonight while high pressure over the western Atlantic
slowly weakens. A tightening of the surface pressure gradient as
well as the development of a LLJ will allow for southwest winds to
remain elevated overnight.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned surface low will
slowly approach tonight. Light rain showers are possible ahead of
the front the second half of tonight. Capped PoPs at 25% and QPF at
only a few hundredths. Lift is weak and consensus across most
guidance is for only light QPF. Most areas will likely not see
any measurable precip and may just see sprinkles.

With elevated winds and increasing clouds, stuck close to NBM for
lows. Lows tonight in the 60s are about 20 degrees above average
for late October.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front slowly moves through the area on Friday, with
some timing differences still seen across the guidance. Current
thinking is that the front will at least be about halfway
through the area by the afternoon. The wind shift seems to lag,
with the moisture axis east of the area by the afternoon. The
timing of the front will likely allow areas east of the Hudson
River and also northeast NJ to reach similar high temperatures
as they did on Thursday. Both the NAM and GFS Bufkit profiles
show deep mixed layers. Bumped up wind gusts closer to the NBM
90th percentile, but this trend may continue with the next
forecast package. Current thinking is there is potential for
isolated 40 mph gusts, especially just behind the front.
Dewpoints drop quickly behind the front, with RH values likely
dropping to around 30 percent for the afternoon. Given the winds
and dry conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the
entire area. See Fire Weather section below.

Behind the front, high pressure will build in for the weekend. This
will bring sunny conditions and highs back to normal. With light
winds and clear skies Saturday night, lows will likely drop below
freezing across the interior and LI Pine Barrens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front approaches Sunday night and moves slowly northward as
the amplifying ridge axis moves into the area Monday night. With the
ridge axis moving east Tuesday, the warm front is expected to lift
through the region.

There will be increasing low level isentropic lift along with upper
level support, and there will be a chance of showers. With little to
no CAPE and no instability, convection is not expected. Showers
may start as the warm front passes.

The area then becomes warm sectored and dry for awhile until the
approach of a cold front that likely moves through Wednesday,
possibly Wednesday night or Thursday morning. This may bring with it
another chance for showers.

Temperatures will be near seasonal Sunday night and Monday. With the
passage of the warm front, temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday may be
as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Given the NBM
deterministic is skewed towards the high end of the NBM percentiles,
used NBM for the high temperature forecast. Highs are
forecasted to be near or at record levels on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will drift east tonight.
A cold front will approach Fri morning.

VFR. Chance of showers during the AM hours around and after
daybreak, but these should be rather light and falling out of a
mid level cloud deck, so do not anticipate MVFR cond.

SW flow around or just over 10 kt should back more to the S late
this afternoon, then diminish slightly this evening and once
again veer SW. SW flow increasing to 10-15G20kt after daybreak
Fri should veer more to the WSW and increase to 15-20G25kt
by afternoon.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Brief gusts 15-18 kt still possible this afternoon before winds
back S. Gusts to 20 kt in SW flow Fri morning could start a
couple of hrs earlier than fcst.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday afternoon and night: Cold fropa with winds shifting WNW
15-20G25kt and a brief gust over 30 kt possible. Winds shift NW
toward evening and then diminish at night.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR with slight chance of showers.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. S winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
There is a Small Craft Advisory on all ocean zones tonight, with
building seas and 25 kt gusts. The SCA expands to all waters during
the day on Friday as gusts ahead of and behind a cold front could
reach 25 to 30 kts. There is potential for isolated 35 knot gusts as
well, mainly near the shoreline. Conditions improve slightly Friday
night and by the weekend high pressure will bring quiet weather.

Winds and seas across the forecast waters will remain below
advisory levels Saturday through Monday night. Winds and seas on the
ocean may climb to SCA levels Tuesday into Tuesday night with 25kt
gusts and 5 ft seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move through the area during the day on Friday.
Gusts ahead of and behind the front will likely reach 30 mph, with
the potential for isolated 40 mph gusts. Sustained winds will be
15 to 20 mph. RH quickly drops off behind the cold front, with
values around 30 percent or below by the late afternoon. Given a
combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and dry
fuels, there is a significantly elevated fire growth potential.
a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible Friday.

Daily record highs for November 1:

EWR: 85/1950
BDR: 71/2019
NYC: 84/1950
LGA: 83/1950
JFK: 80/1950
ISP: 77/1982

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for NYZ211>213.
NJ...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BR/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
CLIMATE...JT