What's Happening In Newington

247
FXUS61 KOKX 241426
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1026 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated afternoon into evening shower and thunderstorm
activity today and Tuesday.

2) An approaching frontal system will bring a more widespread
potential for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

A slow moving closed upper level low will open and move across
to the north of the region today into tonight. At the surface, a
weak cold front will move across. Multiple embedded shortwaves
are shown to move across the periphery of this closed upper
level low, bringing multiple periods of positive vorticity
advection. The vertical forcing will not be too much and will
limit coverage of showers and thunderstorms to isolated to
widely scattered at most. Layer precipitable waters near 1.25
inch, so not expecting any significant flooding issues but
perhaps a brief gusty wind and quick downpour.

Would expect slightly less precipitable waters for Tuesday with the
more westerly flow. Heights aloft slightly rise as closed upper
level low shifts farther northward and starts to become more of an
open wave trough. Once again, an embedded shortwave with its
positive vorticity advection moves across the area during the day.
At the surface, another weak cold front moves across Tuesday into
Tuesday night. With less moisture, POPs only slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms.

Regarding temperatures, the forecast values are not too remarkable.
They are expected to be within a few degrees of normal values for
both Monday and Tuesday. Most locations though with their respective
high temperature forecasts, do exhibit a small decrease from Monday
to Tuesday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The open wave trough heading into midweek is forecast to shift
farther northeast. Across the local area, ridging takes place with a
quasi-zonal flow. The ridge axis though already moves across the
area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. For late Wednesday night
into Thursday, the flow aloft is returning to more SW flow and the
next trough will start to move into interior portions of the
Northeast. The trough will continue to move east with its closed
upper level low for late week but does not push as much south as the
previous trough has done for the early week period. Heights aloft
across the local area do not change too significantly and any height
falls will be slight.

At the surface, weak large area of high pressure builds across the
area Wednesday but will be centered fairly quickly offshore. Then
there will be an approaching frontal system from the west for
Thursday. This may linger into Friday with a lingering associated
cold front. The aforementioned heights aloft and farther northward
track of the closed low will mean less steering flow for this front.
The forecast has the next showers and thunderstorms for the area
within this Thursday through Friday night timeframe with showers
being likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Chances for
thunderstorms are present and should be able to develop as the
airmass becomes a warm and humid airmass with the synoptic setup.
The driving factors appear to be more in the low levels compared
to the upper levels.

Highs forecast Thursday and Friday more in the low to mid 80s but
with dewpoints in upper 60s to near 70, max heat indices reach in
the upper 80s to near 90 for parts of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A trough of low pressure lingers across the region today with
high pressure gradually building from the west.

VFR through the TAF period. Low chance of a few isolated
showers / thunderstorms this afternoon, but confidence remains
too low to include in the TAF.

Light SW flow this morning; S at coastal terminals. Speeds
increase into the afternoon toward or just above 10 kt with
gusts 20 to 25 kt developing. An isolated gust up to 30 kt
can`t be ruled out. Some coastal terminals may not gust, or
may be more occasional. Gusts subside and speeds lower early
this evening, with similar flow expected on Tuesday.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An isolated gust up to 30 kt can`t be ruled out this afternoon.

Isolated shower possible this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. WSW around 10 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds.

Thursday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA.

Friday: Mostly VFR, with a brief period of sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient remains relatively weak on average through
midweek across the local region. As a result, conditions on the
forecast waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory
thresholds, with just afternoon nearshore gusts to around 20
kt today and Tuesday.

There will be increasing potential for small craft conditions at
least on the ocean late week with high pressure offshore and an
approaching frontal system. This will set up a tightening pressure
gradient.

Rip Currents:

For the ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island, multiple onshore
components comprise the waves for both today and Tuesday. The wave
heights forecast are near 2 to 3 feet today and will be around 2 ft
on Tuesday. The forecast winds are more onshore today with more SW
flow and will be more westerly on Tuesday. Max daytime wind speeds
for both days will be within the 10-15 kt range.

With the more onshore winds and relatively greater wave heights
today, this will present a moderate risk of rip currents.

With the more westerly winds and less onshore component and slightly
lower wave heights Wednesday, this will still present a moderate
risk of rip currents but some ocean beaches could end up being more
on the low side for rip current risks.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/NV
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JM/NV